Galaxy Research released a wide-ranging outlook for the crypto market in 2026, paired with a review of how its earlier calls played out. The report paints a mixed picture, starting with Bitcoin’s surprisingly uneventful 2025 finish.
After a strong rally through most of the year, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,080 on October 6. Regulatory progress, steady ETF inflows, and stronger on-chain activity helped fuel that run.
But this momentum didn’t last for long either. Macro market pressure, ever-changing narratives, large-scale selling of long-term holders, as well as significant selling of other participants, led prices back down, the Galaxy team observes, and Bitcoin once again dropped to the low $90,000s, where it finished the year, essentially where it started.
Again, Galaxy argues that institutional adoption remained quietly underway, laying the foundation for what’s to come.
Galaxy looks at 2026 as being very uncertain and turbulent. However, the prediction that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027 remains, but it has to first remain above $100,000-$105,000. In the long term, institutional demand could see the use of Bitcoin as protection against devaluing currencies.
Also Read: Solana (SOL) Could Hit $150 Following DeFi Growth and RWA Expansion
Solana, Layer-1s, and a Shift in Value Capture
Beyond Bitcoin, the Galaxy analysis looks at the creation and retention of value through blockchains.
On Solana, the company forecasts Internet Capital Markets to increase from the current level of $750 million to $2 billion due to the demand for tokens representing real businesses as opposed to speculation. This also indicates a focus on real outcomes in the network.
Galaxy doesn’t think that Solana’s inflation debate will be resolved by 2026. What’s proposed currently for SIMD-0411 will likely be abandoned as the focus will be on changes to market structures rather than money.
On the whole, Galaxy believes that app revenues will increase to be more than network revenues. With fees going down and MEV decreasing, apps would finally capture a larger portion of on-chain economic activity.
Source: Galaxy Research
This could trigger at least one of the major Layer 1 chains to launch an app that generates revenue right into its own protocol, thereby enhancing protocol token economics.
Stablecoins, DeFi, and Finance Moving Onchain
According to a report, there are major changes in payment and capital markets. Stablecoins are expected to outrun ACH networks in terms of volume of funds moved, since supply is increasing steadily and regulations are better defined.
Source: Galaxy Research
This is also in line with Galaxy’s view that several popular bank-backed stablecoins will consolidate into a few that would be selected as favorites by users.
However, the SEC may grant limited exceptions for tokenized securities to operate in the DeFi space, but the traditional financial world is expected to resist.
Source: Galaxy Research
On the other hand, DeFi is expected to increase, with decentralized exchanges handling over 25% of the total spot trading activity in 2026. Galaxy also forecasts increased activity in crypto-backed lending, privacy coins, and prediction markets.
Also Read: Solana (SOL) Could Surge to $308 as Ondo Finance Brings Stocks and ETFs to Solana
