- Four on-chain metrics show bearish signs, hinting at pressure on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
- IFP and MVRV remain below key averages, signalling weak momentum and rising sell pressure.
- No signs of a cycle top yet, but macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on Bitcoin sentiment.
Analytical platform CryptoQuant has listed four on-chain indicators that currently suggest bearish sentiment for Bitcoin. The data suggests that while the long term bull run may not be over, there can be serious short and medium term pressure which can alter the investor sentiment significantly.
IFP Signals Bearish Momentum
Among the growing number of indicators, the Interexchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric is considered to be one of the most concerned. At present, the IFP is 696K and it is still far from the 90-day SMA90 of 794K. As long as IFP remains below this level, the market cannot expect a positive change of trend and can only remain stagnant in a bearish trend.
Following the trend, there is Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator – a factor that contributes to the bearish outlook. The current position is much lower than the past 30 days average at 0.16 and the 365-day moving average at 0.18. This and the rest were seen to assume a pattern similar to the rest of the correction phases observed in the past. As long as DMA30 has not outperformed DMA365, any long and steady positive movement is not considered significant by analysts.
The MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) score also brings into focus some concern. Now, it has fallen beneath the 365-day moving average, a key level that in the past triggers more selling pressure. A similar MVRV drop also occurred during the carry trade crisis on August 5, 2024, and this led to a minor price drop in Bitcoin but returned to the upside once macroeconomic issues were sorted.
Bitcoin Struggles for Momentum
As for the other key calculation, the Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) is still operating below the long-term trend line. NUPL has fell to 0.49 while the average of 365 days is 0.53. Another key level that has been identified by various analysts is the same level that Bitcoin needs to get back for the bulls to come back into play. Without it, investors remain in the dark about such matters as market volatilities. As of press time, BTC is trading at $87,974, showing a 1.02% increase over the past day.
Source: TradingView
Despite the negative readings across all four indicators, none point to a market peak or an overheated cycle. Nevertheless, they are similar to previous correction phases that resulted from macroeconomic shocks. Uncertainty in the current global policies such as the US tariff approach seems to be a drag factor to enhancing the attitude towards cryptocurrency.
As per CryptoQuant’s assessment, Bitcoin’s bull market is struggling but it is not yet in the final phase. A return to profitability is still possible in the long run if external pressures decrease and volume levels returns to previous levels. Therefore, the next move should be monitored closely with caution as investors wait for opportunity to strike as indicated by the signals above.