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Bitcoin’s New Capital Inflow: 16.7% Signals Sustainable Growth

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  • At 16.7% today, the 30-Day Capital Rotation for Bitcoin shows a consistent migration of new capital.
  • Contrary to the 53% rise of 2021 that was driven by retail frenzy, today’s lower rotation means market positioning is stable and more comprehensive.
  • This balanced flow of capital implies greater investor confidence and is a proper lead-up for sustainable long term growth in Bitcoin.

A recently created X post from Axel Adler Jr. explains some important shifts in dynamics and trajectory towards a new wave of capital in the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem. The 30-Day Capital Rotation, which is a primary metric that reflects the share of realized capital from “new” coins (less than one month old), according to Adler, is currently at 16.7%. 

This indicates a consistent, healthy inflow of fresh capital into Bitcoin without the wild volatility usually caused by speculative euphoria. The metric essentially shows the proportion of the trading volume driven by new players versus old players returning to the market. 

In the past, higher values of this metric, especially 35% or so, have been related to particularly aggressive hype periods and fast price spikes.

Bitcoin’s Take-off Driven by Retail Speculation

The post by Axel Adler Jr. includes a lengthy chart entitled “Bitcoin Capital Rotation New vs Old,” which plots Bitcoin’s price action relative to capital rotation over the last few years.

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Source: X @AxelAdler Jr

The chart highlights three key moments: a 53% increase in January 2021 when BTC was in a speculative frenzy; two more moderate peaks around 35%, with short-term rally episodes; and a current level of 16.7%, which was noted in May 2025.

The 53% figure for January 2021, as Adler notes, was the peak of  the “speculator euphoria.” At that time, BTC’s price surged with a flood of retail investors and institutional interest. 

The after-effect of the surge was a significant correction.

Current Bitcoin Cycle Demonstrates Market Maturity

On the other hand, the 16.7% for today paints a calmer view. While it’s a sign that new money is still entering the market, it’s also at a rate that instills stability instead of mania. 

According to the chart, while the capital rotation line stands well below former peaks, the price of Bitcoin continues to increase steadily, thanks to the tepid investors’ interest and not temporary enthusiasm.

This indicates a mature stage for Bitcoin where investor behaviors are more optimistic about the long-term outlook BTC holds. It also implies that organic growth is currently fueling the current cycle in the market.

With this stable flow, BTC can be positioned to move in a more sustainable upward trend. 

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1.66M Bitcoin (BTC) Held at a Loss: Is it a Buy Opportunity?

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  • With 1.66 million BTC being held at a loss, that is 8.34% of Bitcoin’s supply.
  • Bitcoin’s market structure seems solid, considering most holders are either in profit or at breakeven.
  • Bitcoin’s current dynamics present a sound equilibrium within the market that can confidently assert that panic selloff is minimal and strong bullish accumulation is set.

Bitcoin, currently priced at $94,184, is showing strength against the struggling state of the global economy. On-chain data from IntoTheBlock shared by analyst (Maartunn) reveals 1.66 million BTC (valued at over $157 billion) are being held at a loss, 8.34% of the total supply.

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Source: X @JA_Maartun

This happened because during the peaks of the market, many investors reportedly bought tokens that are now below their worth. According to experts, this may look startling, but when assessed under the overall distribution of Bitcoin holdings, the alarming claim transforms into a promising opportunity.

Most Bitcoin Holders Are Still in Profit

83.93% of Bitcoin holders are in profit, even though 1.66 million BTC are still at a loss. This high percentage shows that a lot of investors bought the coin before its price surged and are holding on to it confidently. 

These profitable holdings are roughly $1.58 trillion, which suggests that despite fluctuations, the overall sentiment in the market is positive. Additionally, 7.73% of holders are at a break-even point, which comes to around 1.54 million BTC, meaning their purchase prices are almost equivalent to the market price. 

The majority of holders being either in profit or at breakeven shows healthy market sentiment. On the contrary, this small fraction of holders who are at a loss may temporarily sell, which would provide liquidity. 

They may also consider waiting in hope for the prices to bounce back. Many times in history, periods of consolidation with few underwater holders lead to upward momentum due to decreased selling pressure and new buyers entering the market. Hence, a buy opportunity exists for those willing to take the risk.

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Balchunas: The Stability of Bitcoin’s Price is Due to Strong Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs

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  • Led by BlackRock’s IBIT, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have surged as institutions become increasingly confident.
  • Long-term ETF investors are said to contribute to Bitcoin’s price stability.
  • Outflows from Grayscale’s products are a sign that investors are moving to newer, more trusted Bitcoin ETFs.

Over the past month, as well as for the year so far, financial analyst Eric Balchunas reports that Bitcoin ETFs have had a net positive inflows. Out of these, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ($IBIT) led the way with a year-to-date inflow of around $2.4 billion, making it one of the top 1 percent ETFs for 2025.

This strong performance is an indication that investors are becoming more interested in Bitcoin as a long-term asset rather than a short-term speculative trade asset.

Investors in Bitcoin ETFs are Much Less Likely to Sell

One of the reasons that Bitcoin’s price has remained stable in recent months, Eric Balchunas says, could be because many of these Bitcoin ETF investors are not quick to sell. In fact, they are part of what he calls  ‘stronger hands’, or investors who may be more likely to hold onto their Bitcoin in times of market turmoil.

For a year and a half, institutional players and high-profile Bitcoin advocates such as Michael Saylor have been actively acquiring Bitcoin from distressed holders. This includes the victims of the FTX collapse, GBTC cashouts, legal rulings, and government seizures.

IBIT Dominates ETF Inflows As the ETF Market Strengthens 

The total Bitcoin-related ETF assets are currently around $93.8 billion, with $48 billion pumped into IBIT alone. IBIT’s significant inflows, which for just this year have reached $2.39 billion, is said to have been the major contributor to the total inflows in this sector.

Even though IBIT experienced a dip of around $14.78 million a week, there were also inflows of $406 million a month and an average of $38.22 million a day (which indicates some confidence on the part of the fund’s investors).

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Source: @EricBalchunas

Other Bitcoin ETFs have also gained interest. For instance, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITC) has seen strong year-to-date inflows of $328 million, $69.59 million last month, and $8.93 million in one day. Even a few smaller funds, such as the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW), have modest but positive flows.

However, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, once the largest fund to expose investors to the digital currency, has seen a significant outflow this year of $1.28 billion and lost $620.89 million in the past month.