In the world of cryptocurrencies, the relationship between Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) has greatly interested investors and traders. Recently, the CME Group released a report shedding light on the factors driving the Ether-Bitcoin exchange rate, revealing some intriguing insights.
The first major factor identified is the performance of technology stocks. It appears that higher tech stock performance benefits ETH more than Bitcoin. This connection might be attributed to the practical applications of ETH as the currency of the Ethereum smart contract network, which has garnered significant attention as a blockchain 2.0 with capabilities beyond being a store of value.
On the flip side, the report highlights the negative impact of a stronger U.S. dollar on Ethereum compared to BTC. While cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile, the stronger USD seems to have a more adverse effect on the value of ETH. This correlation might be due to differences in the ways ETH and Bitcoin are used and supplied to the market.
The second factor of interest lies in the relationship between the supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Despite being correlated, BTC’s supply is perfectly inelastic, meaning it follows a predetermined path set by its algorithm, and its supply growth halves every four years. This unique feature contributes to BTC’s high volatility. On the other hand, ETH has a theoretically unlimited supply, but its new coin supply has been contracting since its shift to a proof of stake (PoS) model in 2022.
Supply Dynamics: Ethereum’s Reaction To Bitcoin
Interestingly, the report also reveals that ETH’s supply merely reacts to changes in its exchange rate with BTC rather than driving the prices themselves. It implies that the exchange rate’s main driver lies within BTC’s unique economics.
The third factor revolves around the macroeconomic and market conditions. ETHBTC has shown a modest but persistent positive correlation with technology stocks, indicating that rallies in tech stocks tend to influence ETH relative to BTC positively. On the other hand, a stronger USD appears to have the opposite effect, causing a decline in ETHBTC.
Additionally, the relationship between BTC and ETH in the macro economy has been intriguing. When central banks slashed rates and engaged in quantitative easing in 2020, BTC and ETH prices soared, with ETH outperforming.
However, tightening monetary policies seemed to have negatively affected crypto assets. While recent events, such as the collapse of regional banks in 2023, provided some boost, uncertainties still linger regarding BTC’s and ETH’s future performance with the macroeconomic landscape.
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