VanEck Signals Strong Bitcoin Supply Squeeze, 60.8% Dormant

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VanEck says H1 2026’s slow Bitcoin market hides a tight supply setup. 60.8% of BTC hasn’t moved in 12 months, while ETFs from VanEck, BlackRock, and Fidelity lock up more coins. With thin liquidity and low sell pressure, macro factors and Q3 ETF flows could trigger sharp price moves.

What to Know

  • 60.8% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in 12 months, with major ETFs pulling large amounts off exchanges.
  • Thin liquidity and institutional inflows could lead to sharper price moves.
  • U.S. rate policy and Q3 ETF flows will decide if the squeeze impacts prices.
Vanecks

Bitcoin trading volumes have been a bit slow in the first half of 2026, but VanEck thinks it’s the surface level the calm. VanEck says, that the real story is about a tight supply structure. 60.8% of circulating Bitcoin hasn’t moved on-chain for more than 12 months which is a very high level historically.

Long-Term Holders Signal Low Sell Pressure Ahead

It indicates the sell pressure is expected to be low in the coming market cycle.On-Chain Signal and Key Data The 60.8% figure is a measure of “long-term holder supply” as the Glassnode-style on-chain approach. VanEck uses this metric to explain Bitcoin as a ” macro” asset to its holders rather than a ” trading” vehicle.

Vaneck
Source: FinanceFeeds

A spot Bitcoin ETF that has been issued by major institutions like VanEck, BlackRock, and Fidelity now have hundreds of thousands of BTC under their custodial custody, so a very large portion the supply has effectively been pulled from the live order books of the exchanges.

Also Read: Strategy’s $135M Bitcoin Sale Leaves $1.25B Plan Intact, VanEck Says

What’s at Stake From Investors’ and Institutions’ Point of View

Fund managers and investors are exposed to the risk of lower liquidation being able to trigger a sharper move in prices In particular with ETFs and corporate treasuries acting as inflows channels. er order books and greater price spikes after sudden increases in trading volumes.

But, Bitcoin miners and participants within the wider Bitcoin market can be heartened for Bitcoin’s role as collateral and not only a speculative crypto.

Also Read: VanEck BNB ETF Debuts as First U.S. Spot BNB Product

Thin Liquidity Meets Macro Uncertainty in 2026

Exchanges can expect thinn Dormancy is a perfect scenario for macro uncertainty, institutional accumulation through 2026 and limited retail trading. Even so, long-term holders might still decide to sell. Besides, ETF money flows come down to market sentiment.

Bitcoin
Source: Investopedia

Catalysts will be fed by US interest rate policy and the third-quarter’s ETF flows.

Also Read: Sui (SUI) Price Eyes a Rally Toward $1.16 as VanEck ETN Boosts Liquidity

This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.

Ananthyka J

Ananthyka J

Ananthyka J is a market reporter at Tronweekly, reporting on cryptocurrency news. She covers cryptocurrency markets, blockchain technology, and digital asset regulation, focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, altcoins, and crypto policy. Her reporting emphasizes clear and accurate market coverage, including crypto market movements, regulatory developments, and blockchain adoption. She holds a BA in Journalism and Mass Communication and an MA in Communication and Media Studies. She has also completed multiple media internships, follows strict editorial and fact-checking standards, and discloses potential conflicts of interest when reporting.

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