XRP price analysis for Wednesday, July 1, 2026, involves a crucial macro test, as the price behavior of the crypto asset will be monitored to determine if it gains momentum or enters into a moving average area. The focus of the market will be on testing above $1.65.
As of writing, XRP is trading at $1.04, showing a decline of 0.11% in the past day. The trading volume has gone slightly up by 0.51% and is currently standing at $1.61 billion. Over the last week, the coin price has decreased by 4.01%, according to CoinMarketCap.
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XRP Price Analysis Tracks $1.65 Breakout Level
Analyst Egrag Crypto highlighted that XRP opened July below the 50 simple moving average on the monthly chart. He said that $1.65 was the key macro gate.
According to the analyst, this trend is observed in the previous cycles of XRP. XRP price analysis shows XRP formed its Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 lows near the 88 SMA. Following testing of that zone, larger macro expansion followed.
Egrag said the current chart now faces two main questions. XRP price analysis suggests the token might repeat history and move toward the 88 SMA. It might even retake the 50 SMA early and reduce deeper testing.
His probability map rates the 88 SMA retest as the highest chance. He placed that path at 55%. A quick reclaim of the 50 SMA received a 30% probability.
The third scenario is still significant. The analyst gave a 15% chance to XRP losing the 88 SMA and needing more time. This would push back a robust macro recovery.
The following XRP price analysis will reveal why $1.65 is still the focal point for traders. Egrag noted that XRP remains in macro compression until it breaks. Caution remains as long as the price stays below the 50 SMA.
The chart would be completely different if XRP crossed $1.65. He set the first major expansion goal at $7.50. The XRP price analysis also cited $42 as the higher historical measured-move target.
XRP Futures Volume and Open Interest Decline
Derivatives data also showed weaker market activity. According to CoinGlass data, the future volume has gone down by 2.14% to $1.70 billion. Open interest also decreased 2.73% to $2.27 billion. The XRP OI-weighted funding rate stands at 0.0027%.
Japan’s XRP Holdings Surpass $60 Billion
Xrp Herald, a prominent analyst, noted in a post on X that the amount of XRP held by Japan has now surpassed $60 billion. Japan has also been one of XRP’s strongest markets, with institutional connections via SBI Holdings, increasing retail adoption, and a rise in blockchain activity.
Xrp Herald further emphasized that recent reports indicate XRP’s momentum has not slowed down in Japan’s financial market. The analyst suggested that SBI Holdings is now among the biggest corporate XRP holders in the world and that Japan is poised to continue as a key support for XRP adoption.
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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