Bitcoin may get another boost in its battle against gold as investors look to unwind the substantial amount of protection put in place due to the cryptocurrency-based exchange-traded funds, says a report by JPMorgan.
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JPMorgan’s analysts, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, pointed out that there is a big distinction when it comes to the positioning of investors around Bitcoin and gold ETFs. Despite the fact that both assets have large institutions invested in them, BTC funds have significantly more protective positions in them.
The report arrives amidst a resurgence in demand for both BTC and gold ETFs due to the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting in July. Investors have come back to these investments as a hedge against currency debasement and evolving macroeconomic scenarios. But the increase in ETF demand has not been even for both.
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Bitcoin ETF Recovery Still Trails Gold
According to JPMorgan, gold ETFs have already managed to recover all the outflows that had occurred previously during 2026, whereas the same can be said for BTC ETFs, about recovering only half of their outflows.
At first glance, the aforementioned numbers seem to work to the advantage of gold. However, the JPMorgan analysis is concerned with another area: investors’ position defense strategy.
The short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is near its high for 2026, while the short interest in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF is below its historical average value.
This suggests that investors are hedging much more effectively around Bitcoin compared to gold.
The same can be seen in the options market as well. The open interest put-to-call ratio of IBIT is higher than that of GLD. This implies that there is higher demand for options that will protect from any downward movement in BTC’s price.
As per JPMorgan, this positioning can turn out to be bullish for Bitcoin if investors start to unwind their hedges without reducing their underlying exposure. Under such circumstances, the unwinding of the short positions can contribute to buying pressure on BTC.
However, the bank emphasized that positioning is one of the many factors influencing the performance of Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional Positioning Remains Important
The latest view from JPMorgan comes amid high institutional interest in both Bitcoin and gold. The point is not only in the volume of capital that has entered the two markets but rather in the way investors manage the risks associated with their positions.
The ETF rally in gold is performing well, while the exposure to shorts in BTC and options as protection is greater. If the protective stance weakens, BTC can get additional help without having to see more ETF flows.
This would make IBIT an especially noteworthy stock to observe. Lower short interest would show that some traders are no longer worried about the potential downsides.
Meanwhile, the options market may provide us with yet another indicator. The lower put-to-call ratio of IBIT would show that the demand for hedges is decreasing.
JPMorgan’s BTC Outlook Has Shifted in 2026
Positioning analysis by JPMorgan is the latest in a series of positions taken by the company regarding Bitcoin in 2026.
During February, the bank reiterated that it remains bullish on cryptos for 2026 and projected the production cost of BTC to be around $77,000 compared to $90,000 in January. The bank held its long-term and volatility-adjusted price of BTC at $266,000 when comparing it to gold.
The number $266,000 was a long-term valuation rather than a short-term one. The analysts at JPMorgan compared this number using Bitcoin’s volatility in relation to gold and how much money from private sector investments is kept in gold.
However, the bank became less optimistic regarding the short-term conditions of the Bitcoin market. In June, the bank reported that Bitcoin had been trading under its estimated cost of production for five months straight. At that time, the cost of production was estimated to be about $78,000.
The regulatory situation has emerged as yet another issue during the summer season. The United States Senate was unable to progress on the CLARITY Act as it only garnered 50 votes when a total of 60 were required. This introduced a new level of uncertainty to the digital assets market in the United States.
In this context, the latest ETF analysis by JPMorgan provides another perspective. In addition to being concerned about new flows, the bank is concerned about the level of existing defense positions within Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin’s Next Move May Depend on Positioning
This, however, does not mean that Bitcoin will outperform gold on its own account. This is because the analysis by JPMorgan only pinpoints a possible factor of extra demand, assuming that there comes a time when investors will feel the need to drop the amount of protection surrounding the Bitcoin ETFs.
At the moment, gold is ahead when it comes to reversing its ETF outflows, whereas Bitcoin is still more defensively positioned in relation to its ETFs.
This would be another factor of strength in favor of Bitcoin against gold.
For the overall cryptocurrency ecosystem, the development further underscores the importance of institutional positioning. ETF flows continue to be an indicator for the market, but the short interest and positioning in options could give another perspective on how investors are preparing for the next move in Bitcoin.
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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
