Bitcoin is likely to generate steady gains over the next decade, but investors should not expect the explosive rallies seen in earlier cycles. That view comes from Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who says the market is entering a more mature phase marked by lower volatility and measured returns.
Speaking on CNBC, Hougan said that Bitcoin’s outlook is not a rapid climb but a long-term upward grind. He said returns should still be excellent, but they should be less dramatic in spiking. According to him, there is more balance in the market movements than in previous cycles.
Hougan reiterated that 2026 will be a good year for Bitcoin. He first made that forecast in July, long before the asset hit a new all-time high of $125,100 in October. Despite the recent downturn, he said that his overall outlook hasn’t changed.
Bitcoin has since fallen off those highs. At the time of writing, it is trading at $87,880. That level represents a decrease of about 4.99% in the last 30 days. The drop has renewed the debate over whether the current cycle has already peaked.
Sharp Bitcoin Drop Revives Fears of a Cycle Peak
ReserveOne chief investment officer, Sebastian Beau, said the move lower has shaken investors’ confidence. He said that Bitcoin declined about 30% in a short period of time. Such rapid declines, he said, tend to make even long-term holders concerned.
Some analysts believe that the timing of Bitcoin’s top in October is similar to that of past cycle tops. That similarity has led to speculation that 2026 could be a down year. The view caught on as retail investors seemed to cut exposure late in the year.
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Hougan admitted that the recent weakness was partially due to retail behavior. He said fast-moving retail traders rotated out of positions in anticipation of a cycle-driven downturn. However, he underlined that selling pressure has been to some extent offset by institutional demand.
According to Hougan, institutional buyers are still slowly and steadily amassing Bitcoin. These investors usually have a longer time frame. They are also less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, which helps to stabilize the market.
Bitcoin Shows More Resilience Than Past Cycles
In past cycles, BTC would typically fall by 60% or more after peaking. The current pullback has been much more limited, which suggests greater underlying support by long-term capital.
Not all market watchers agree with Hougan’s assessment. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has feared that BTC could plunge to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. He has identified macroeconomic pressures and market structure risks as potential threats.
Hougan also minimized the role of U.S. politics in driving future gains. Bitcoin surged earlier in 2025 after the inauguration of Donald Trump. Hougan asserted that political headlines are unlikely to replicate those moves.
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