Bitcoin came into August in a very calm way as the global market for risk assets continued to rise. Shares in America and gold broke highs, crude oil prices eased on the assumption that supply fears were subsiding, whereas Bitcoin was closing a bit above yesterday’s price but was down 0.15% compared with the day before.
At the same moment, it was lagging behind the S&P 500 by more than 4 indices. This kind of price gap shows a market where low volatility is dominating, but the sentiment remains highly fluctuating.
An Event That Created Stress
One of the key-generation flaws in Coldcard hardware wallets, a five-year-old flaw, was exploited on July 31, and roughly 594 bitcoins, worth about $38M, were stolen from about 500 self-custodied wallets.
The reaction on the blockchain was even larger: Glassnode data shows that the Revived Supply 1-year shot up to almost 119,423 BTC over three days as users moved funds to new addresses.
Source: CryptoSlate
About 10% ended up with exchanges. Although this cycle’s forced movement of sleeping coins was one of the biggest ones we’ve seen, the price was practically unaffected. That fact shows that the market depth was very shallow on both the buy and sell areas.
Also Read: Strategy Bitcoin Wallet Transfers $66M in BTC While Holdings Stay Unchanged
Institutional Rails Running in Reverse
The institutional sector has taken a step back, running on reverse rails. Demand-side factors have also been changing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs in June returned roughly 65.8K BTC to the market, which was its worse month of the year, and a total figure for 2024 is much higher as it reached more than 218K BTC. The corporate market is still buying, but it hasn’t fully counteracted ETF outflows.
Also Read: Crypto Staking Expands as BNY and Galaxy Digital Launch Institutional Partnership
Options Priced For Calm, Sentiment For Chaos
While the Seller Exhaustion Constant, a Glassnode metric, is at a record low but is about a third higher than the previous bear-market floors, it might still be far from completion without that structural buyer. The options market tells the story of the rift.
The implied volatility at the top, for 1 month, came close to 23%, its highest low, but the downside IV stayed at its average. In the same session, the weekly 25-Delta Skew moved more than 8 points, a big swing for minimal spot movement.
Also Read: Crypto Theft Allegations Hit Former FBI Supervisor After $1 Million Wallet Discovery
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
