Data from the on-chain analytics platform Alphractal showed Bitcoin On-chain analysis entering another critical stage in its long-term cycle structure after its Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean reached a level rarely seen in the asset’s history.
As observed by the firm, the occurrence of this ratio has been just seven occasions since 2015, and during all such occasions, the price has increased over the subsequent 12 weeks. According to the Bitcoin on-chain analysis model, the market might be experiencing an expansion period.
As per CoinMarketcap’s data, Bitcoin at the time of writing stood at $81,328, representing an increase by 2.46% from yesterday’s closing price, while its 24-hour trading volumes surged by 30% to $43.82 billion.
Source: CoinMarketcap
The Alphractal method applies the concept of the realized price, alongside Fibonacci growth curves, to recognize cycles within the Bitcoin market.
While the green and blue areas represent periods of accumulation, orange and red indicate peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This structure is central to Bitcoin on-chain analysis and price prediction models tracking long-term cycle behavior.
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Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis and Price Prediction Cycle Structure Still Points Higher
According to Alphractal’s research, Bitcoin continues its staircase-like trend, which has been unchanged throughout several cycles.
Following every bullish wave driven by halving, Bitcoin has traditionally experienced significant corrections before forming bottoms during bearish periods at levels much higher than previous ones.
In addition, the Bitcoin on-chain analysis and the price prediction indicate that this phenomenon can be explained through logarithmic growth.
Source: Alphractal
Moreover, according to the analysis, Bitcoin remains in the upper-middle valuation category, and it is not located within the highly speculative red category that was associated with the previous cycle peak.
The asset’s prices have reached elevated levels, but no signs of market excess can be observed. The past cycles experienced high percentages since the Bitcoin market cap was lower at that time.
However, the growth is reducing because the influence of institutional players is shaping its behavior. There are indications of structural health from Bitcoin on-chain analysis and the price outlook.
Institutional ETF Flows Create Major Decision Zone
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant reported that the Bitcoin exchange rate is lower than the one that institutions assess Bitcoin based on their ETF Flow Impact Score (EFIS).
Currently, EFIS assesses the fair valuation of Bitcoin at $88,144 while the market price stands at approximately $79,277, meaning that the cryptocurrency is currently undervalued by 11.2% compared to the ETFs’ valuation of Bitcoin.
Source: CryptoQuant
Starting from January 2024, it seems that the spot Bitcoin ETFs have already accumulated 1.394 million BTC, forming some sort of steady floor under the asset. From the technical standpoint, there are two main scenarios for the BTC price.
Source: CryptoQuant
The first one is bullish and hinges upon a return above the $88,144 EFIS point, which would result in potential resistance near the $105,572 mark.
If Bitcoin fails to break out at this point, bearish pressure may force it towards the institutional support at $70,716, a region briefly violated in March-April.
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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