Bitcoin’s downside risk is increasing, primarily due to weakening demand and tighter liquidity in the market, as indicated by various on-chain indicators. According to analyst Willy Woo, a proper bottom has not been established, and the price of Bitcoin could decline further to the $45,000 zone before a proper base can be formed.
On February 27, 2026, Crypto Analyst Willy Woo indicated that Bitcoin might go as low as $45,000 before reaching a market bottom, citing slowing global liquidity and weakening institutional demand as key challenges in the near future.
In a market update posted to subscribers and social media, Woo said that “several of my on-chain valuation models are starting to converge around this $45,000 level as a large accumulation area. The price action in Bitcoin is currently diverging from long-term holder demand, which is a signal that has previously been observed at cycle lows.”
According to Woo, the $45,000 figure represents the floor of the Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed indicator, which measures the movement of old coins on the blockchain. In previous bear markets, the figure has represented the bottom before the start of a new uptrend.
A price of $45,000 would be a decline of about 25% from current levels. Bitcoin is trading at $67,880, down 1.12% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin has come under pressure early in 2026 due to a stronger U.S. dollar and increased investments in artificial intelligence stocks.
Woo added that “paper Bitcoin” – futures and spot exchange-traded funds – has seen greater activity compared to on-chain settlement. Spot liquidity slowed down in 2025, but there was no pick-up in global M2 growth.
“Until liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin may need to move lower to find its true cost-basis support,” Woo wrote.
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Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Accumulation Zone
Despite his cautious approach in the short-term, Woo identified a potential drop to $45,000 as a significant long-term opportunity. The analyst referenced his “Max Pain” model, which anticipates that a large number of speculators would be forced out at this price, paving the way for a stronger advance into 2027.
Market opinions, however, remain divided. Some technical analysts using chart techniques feel that a retest of the 2024 breakout area could be beneficial before the next significant run. Others feel that further institutional support, along with upcoming network upgrades, could restrict further losses.
For now, Bitcoin is still at a decision point, with its liquidity trends and macro conditions set to play a major role in determining its direction forward.
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