- Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, marked by halving events, has consistently influenced market trends since its inception.
- Despite new market dynamics, the 2024–2025 cycle mirrors past trends, though some corrections show distinct patterns.
- Bitcoin’s market suppressions may be deliberate, with major players aiming to extend the current bull cycle.
Over the years, Bitcoin’s cycle patterns have captured the attention of crypto enthusiasts and now that the market has progressed into 2024–2025, analysts are spotting known trends again. Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that the current Bitcoin cycle looks much like previous ones that have remained consistent for some time.
Typically, every Bitcoin cycle will last about four years between its highest peak and lowest trough. The pattern of this consistency is linked to the Bitcoin halving which usually happens every four years. Over the years, these cycles have typically seen prices rise and then fall again, so several people see this cycle repeating in a similar manner.
Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle
Despite improvements in Bitcoin, ETF additions and more attention toward the macroeconomy, Daan Crypto Trades is still cautious about major changes in the four-year pattern. He explained in his most recent post that many factors could interrupt the pattern, but he still wants to see strong proof before switching lanes.
Though this cycle has similar traits to previous cycles, it could also be different. CryptoQuant’s data indicated that during the 2017 bull market, the market’s growth was mainly through strong and fast increases followed by short-lived drops.
Source: X
In 2017, a corrective period lasting about six to eight months happened and now in 2024, a similar pattern is showing. This means that the general position stay the same, but the changes and times may be variable.
The trends seen in the 2021 cycle differed from what happened in previous cycles. Almost immediately, Bitcoin started correcting for a long time and the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic led to even larger losses. Afterwards, prices went up a lot and only a few minor drops happened during this period. This proved that a big drop in the market is usually followed by a strong climb back up.
Source: X
Frequent Corrections Hint at Market Manipulation
In the 2024–2025 cycle, Bitcoin has gone through typical drops and rallies which happens during early-stage growth. From 2024 onward, major sell-offs have happened more frequently, for example Bitcoin saw price declines in March-November 2024 and in January-April 2025.
Corrections like these caused many altcoins to devalue which gave the market a negative mood. Although the market has struggled, Bitcoin has experienced some gains, yet there is still resistance which suggests the market is being intentionally suppressed.
Source: X
These unwanted corrections could be a sign that major market forces want to lower prices and try to keep things steady for more time. In the end, he expects this cycle will also end with a burst of confidence, as trippy as the bubbles observed earlier in history.
Even though there are hints that the next cycle could be unusual, the four-year cycle is still reliable. As long as the cycle is not proven to have stopped, many people, including Daan, will continue to follow the methods of previous years.
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