- Bitcoin’s next cycle top is projected between $130K–$175K, with the peak expected by February–March 2025.
- The Regression Channel suggests Bitcoin will reach Fibonacci 1.272 before hitting the $130K–$175K range.
- After the cycle peak, Bitcoin’s price could drop to $25K–$35K in a corrective wave from March–June 2026.
Egrag has shared his view on the current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle and presented his estimates of the next cycle top and the bear market bottom. In a recent post on X he sets the next cycle top for BTC at between $130,000 and $175,000, with the bear market bottom of the next cycle possibly dropping to between $25,000 and $35,000.
According to the analyst, BTC will hit the next cycle peak between February and March 2025. This corresponds with the earlier predictions he made and the price range is between $130K and $175K. The forecast is made based on the *Regression Channel*, which is a trend following indicator that also defines levels of support and resistance.
Bitcoin Eyes Fibonacci Levels
Bitcoin has not lost the middle line of the Regression Channel since February 2024, this shows that the current trend is upward. Egrag expects Bitcoin to draw a bead on the Fibonacci 1.272 level as it continues to rise. The peak may be near the Fibonacci 1.414 and 1.618 thus strengthening his price estimate of between $130,000 to $175,000.
The middle line of the Regression Channel is the most important to identify the shift in trends. It also shows the level of overbought or oversold for Bitcoin. With the upward movement of Bitcoin, the middle line will define price movements in the future. If this trend is to be consistent, the target of $130K – $175K can be realized by early 2025.
Bear Market Bottom Forecast
However, Egrag also indicated a sharp reversal after the cycle peak had been reached. He believes that BTC will adhere to an *ABC corrective wave* which is a three-part drop in prices. The first stage, Wave A should now push the price of BTC down to around $44K in targeting the Fibonacci 0.702 level.
Following Wave A, Wave B will generate a short recovery, yet Wave B will be challenged at the Regression Channel’s midline. BTC is expected to reach the bottom in wave C at $25k- $35k. The correction is expected to occur between March and June year of 2026. As of writing, BTC is trading at $100,610 showing a 2.42% increase over the past day.
Source: TradingView
The bear market bottom projection is that BTC price will likely fall below $25,000 again. This is going to be the low before a rebound in the market. Looking at the chart, his analysis gives a clear path map for the cryptocurrency in the next few years, with a positive outlook for the next few years, but with a warning about a long-term bear market.
