- 14,000 BTC moved after 7–10 years but not sent to exchanges.
- Retail investors are accelerating accumulation at 72% above the yearly average.
- Whales have been offloading BTC at a 9x higher rate since late November.
- Bitcoin cycle peak predicted for Q4 2025 with a potential price of $200K–$300K.
On February 10, 14,000 Bitcoins, untouched for 7 to 10 years, were suddenly moved, according to CryptoQuant. Despite the large volume, none of these coins were transferred to exchanges, signaling that an immediate sell-off is unlikely. Historically, similar events have taken place without significant price impacts.
However, since these BTC were acquired at a much lower price, their holders may decide to sell depending on market conditions. Traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s historical patterns to assess whether this movement could lead to any shifts in the market.
Retail Investors Ramping Up Accumulation
According to Glassnode, small investors holding less than 1 BTC have been accumulating at a record pace since mid-December. They are stacking an average of 10,627 BTC per day, marking a 72% increase over the past year’s daily average.
This behavior is a stark contrast to November when retail holders sold into strength as Bitcoin surged past $100K. Their renewed confidence suggests a growing belief in BTC’s long-term upside, even as larger market players take a different approach.
Whale Selling Pressure Intensifies
In contrast to retail accumulation, BTC whales—wallets holding over 1,000 BTC—have been consistently offloading their holdings since November 24. They have transferred an average of 32,509 BTC daily to exchanges, a ninefold increase compared to their yearly average.
This selling pressure raises concerns about short-term market fluctuations. If the trend continues, it could dampen BTC’s momentum despite retail enthusiasm. However, institutional demand might counterbalance these movements, preventing extreme volatility.
Bitcoin’s Next Cycle Peak in 2025?
Stockmoney Lizards provided an interesting perspective on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. They pointed out that Bitcoin remains in an overbought zone on the monthly RSI but has yet to reach the levels seen in past cycles.
Using RSI trends, they estimate a cycle peak in Q4 2025, aligning with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Their base case projects a $200K peak, with a bullish scenario targeting $300K. Institutional accumulation in this cycle adds weight to their predictions despite Bitcoin already boasting a $1.2 trillion market cap.
Bitcoin’s market dynamics remain complex, with long-dormant coins moving, retail investors accumulating aggressively, and whales distributing at an increased pace. Whether Bitcoin follows past cycles to new highs or faces short-term turbulence will depend on a delicate balance of buying pressure, institutional involvement, and macroeconomic factors.
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