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Arthur Hayes Predicts Altcoin Revival Hinges On Bitcoin & Ethereum Surge

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The former CEO of BitMEX Arthur Hayes made a rather unconventional prediction regarding the future of the crypto market, which generated a lot of conversations within the community. As Hayes goes on to point out, the highly anticipated altcoin season will not return until Bitcoin and Ethereum, which dominate the market, break key price levels.

As reported by Colin Wu, a popular crypto journalist, Hayes recently published an article, where he explained that the prices of Bitcoin need to go above $70,000 or higher. While he asserts that Ethereum need to surpass $4,000 before the altcoin market could return to its former glories. He stressed that this rise of the top cryptocurrencies is an essential and fundamental catalyst for the rest of the altcoin market to start the upward movement again.

Arthur Hayes Signals Solana Breakout

Extending further on his forecasts, Hayes explained that Solana (SOL) must be included as one of the top altcoins in focus for the current year. He affirmed that Solana would have to rise above $250 before an absolute altcoin breakout could be supported. As Hayes says, this level is rather the critical point, which will provide Solana with the opportunity to become one of the main players in the crypto market.

Hayes did not stop at giving insights though. He also discussed the aspects of macroeconomics that have affected the cryptocurrency market and highlighted the problem of the US dollar liquidity. Activating this liquidity, he said, could reinvigorate the entire crypto market and push it out of its current state of stagnation and decline.

Arthur Hayes is famous for his rather ambitious forecasts, and the recent comments have sparked debate over the long-term outlook for the crypto market. In the word’s of Hayes, this can start in September, driven by a pickup of US dollar liquidity. According to him the change has the potential of pulling the market up from the present state of inertia and enter a new growth trajectory.

Arthur Hayes’ predictions have been largely received with positive feedback though critics have also arisen. While some of his counterparts are also positive with the shares, some have said that getting to those prices may not be a easy feat. The impact of Hayes in the crypto market means that investors and traders would continue to observe his predictions as they continue trading amidst the volatile market environment.

Pro-Crypto Movement Needs Action, Not Promises, Says Arthur Hayes

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Arthur Hayes recently published an article criticizing former President Donald Trump’s newfound support for cryptocurrencies. Hayes claims that it is insincere and purely a political strategy to win over young, active voters in key swing states. Hayes argues that Trump will likely abandon digital currencies once in office and emphasizes the importance of pro-crypto voters pushing for legislation before Election Day.

Hayes has introduce­d a bill suggesting that cryptographic currencies and toke­ns existing on a blockchain or powered by it constitute­ forms of protected spee­ch. His argument is that such legislation would safeguard digital curre­ncies from overregulation, e­stablishing them as valid means of expre­ssion.

This proposed action aims to cultivate a conducive e­nvironment for innovation in the United State­s, fostering the eme­rgence of new e­xchanges, DeFi protocols, and dece­ntralized infrastructure free­ from the limitations imposed by current financial re­gulations.

Drawing parallels to Malcolm X’s “The­ Ballot or the Bullet” address, Haye­s emphasizes the pote­ntial bestowed upon a united, politically active­ minority. His stance advocates for digital currency vote­rs to harness their ele­ctoral strength for tangible legislative­ impacts, steering clear of hollow political ple­dges.

Hayes calls for the digital curre­ncy community to prioritize disentangling monetary control from gove­rnmental influence in pursuit of a more­ transparent governance mode­l.

Hayes shares a firsthand story from his visit to Ibiza during the summer, emphasizing a private event featuring Leonardo DiCaprio. Through this narrative, he draws a parallel between Trump’s abrupt intrigue in digital currency and a celebrity’s unexpected entrance, suggesting a desire to make an impact without displaying true dedication.

A Strategic Plan for Pro-Crypto Voters

He presents a strategic plan for voters that are pro-crypto: demand the enactment of pro-crypto legislation before the election and put on pressure to both Democrats and Republicans. According to Hayes, this is more efficient than hoping Trump will fulfill his promises. He says that the community should come together quickly by using their votes in policy development to affect policy outcomes.

Hayes’ suggested bill seeks to classify crypto as speech protected under the First Amendment to discourage prohibitive regulations. He calls upon the whole community to unite behind this legislation, pointing out that there can be significant changes if pro-crypto voters use their political strength well enough.

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Dogecoin Poised For Major Bounce: BitMEX Co-Founder Bullish

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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is optimistic about Dogecoin, revealing he would add the token to its wallet. “I’m loving this choppy sideways to down shitcoin price action. I’m adding to my bags of PENDLE and DOGE,” he wrote. During a recent interview with macro guru Raoul Pal, Hayes predicted that Dogecoin might get an ETF, and discussed the impact of the US election on the market and potential risks in the future.

The OG meme coin is at a critical juncture, poised at the bottom of its current range, with many analysts believing the bull market is far from over. Aiming for an ambitious target of $1.69, market experts are confident that DOGE’s potential remains strong.

As per Santiment’s recent analysis, the lower a cryptocurrency’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is, the higher the likelihood of a short-term bounce. Here’s the latest MVRV data:

  • Bitcoin: -4.0% (Mild Bullish)
  • Ethereum: -4.3% (Mild Bullish)
  • XRP: -3.5% (Mild Bullish)
  • Dogecoin: -16.7% (Very Bullish)
  • Toncoin: -0.6% (Neutral)
  • Cardano: -12.6% (Very Bullish)

With Dogecoin’s 30-day MVRV at a striking -16.7%, Santiment’s analysis signals a very bullish outlook, This massive dip could mean a significant rebound is on the horizon. DOGE’s bullish signals have a history of defying expectations, and this might be another one of those times

Dogecoin Bulls Eye $0.13

However, DOGE’s short-term price trend is at a crucial point, needing to close the weekly candle above $0.13 to maintain its bullish momentum and break out of the triangle formation to the upside. Should it fail to close above this level, there is a risk that Dogecoin might drop to $0.07, posing a potential setback for short-term traders.

Dogecoin
Image credit: CryptoJack

Despite the immediate pressure, the long-term sentiment around Dogecoin remains optimistic. The strong fundamentals, combined with the significant MVRV dip, highlight an opportunity for investors to potentially capitalize on the anticipated price surge.

Negative Bitcoin Halving Forecast: Prepare for Market Plunge

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Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is at the center of anticipated turbulence in cryptocurrency markets as the second half of April approaches. According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, intense volatility is on the horizon.

In a recent blog post, Hayes outlined his concerns, suggesting that the convergence of the Bitcoin halving and actions from the United States Federal Reserve and Treasury could ignite a significant downturn in the crypto market. While many anticipate the halving to be a bullish catalyst, Hayes offers a contrarian view, warning that the period preceding and following the event may be marked by negative price action.

Hayes points to a combination of factors contributing to this potentially rocky period. Tightened dollar liquidity, alongside Federal Reserve policies such as Quantitative Tightening (QT), could exacerbate market volatility. Additionally, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) remains a potential source of liquidity injection, yet to be fully utilized.

Fed’s Impact on Bitcoin

Looking ahead, Hayes predicts a cautious stance on trading until May, when he expects the Fed to ease money supply tightening and the Treasury to release substantial liquidity into the market. This strategic decision reflects his belief in the significance of these impending monetary maneuvers on market dynamics.

Despite these warnings, Bitcoin has seen significant year-to-date gains, reflecting ongoing market optimism. However, Hayes cautions against complacency, emphasizing the importance of navigating potential risks in a volatile market environment.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, has consistently hovered in “Greed” territory since the start of the year, reaching levels of “Extreme Greed” in recent days. While this sentiment may fuel market enthusiasm, Hayes urges a measured approach, particularly in light of the looming uncertainties.

Furthermore, Hayes’ insights underscore the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency landscape. While the Bitcoin halving presents an opportunity for price appreciation, it is also accompanied by a host of macroeconomic factors that could dampen market sentiment. As investors navigate these turbulent waters, caution and strategic decision-making will be paramount in safeguarding portfolios against potential downside risks.

Meme Coin Frenzy Takes Solana and Ethereum by Storm

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Meme coins, often dismissed as frivolous, are gaining credibility in the crypto sphere. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes challenges the notion of labeling them as “stupid and valueless.” In a recent interview, he highlighted their potential to attract attention and talent to blockchain networks. Hayes emphasizes their role in fostering community engagement and expanding the user base. This sentiment is echoed by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, who sees memecoins as a gateway for younger investors, tapping into the gaming mentality prevalent among Gen Z and millennials.

Despite skepticism from industry experts like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, meme coins are proving their worth as a vibrant sector within crypto. Solana-based meme coin, WIF, recently surpassed Ethereum’s ARB in market capitalization, demonstrating their growing influence. However, caution is warranted, as Franklin Templeton warns of the risks associated with investing in assets lacking fundamental value.

Meme Coin Mania Grips Cryptocurrency Market

The meteoric ascent of meme coins, exemplified by tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB), Dogwifhat (WIF), and BOME, ignites both enthusiasm and trepidation in the cryptocurrency realm. While some hail these coins as a lighthearted introduction to digital assets, others, including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, raise red flags about their potential harm to the industry.

Ju voices concern over meme coins’ viral promotion and speculative essence, which he believes could undermine the credibility and evolution of cryptocurrencies. He warns against the overshadowing of genuine projects by billion-dollar meme coins, emphasizing the risks of these tokens to investors’ portfolios.

Comparing the trend to the speculative fervor of the initial coin offering (ICO) era, Ju underscores the allure of quick gains through meme coins, cautioning against potential losses akin to those experienced during the ICO boom of 2018. Despite arguments advocating for memecoins as an on-ramp for new entrants, Ju urges vigilance, drawing from the cautionary tales of past industry bubbles, as reported by TWJ.

Nevertheless, memecoins continue to outperform other crypto assets, indicating their resilience and potential for further growth. As the crypto landscape evolves, memecoins may play an integral role in shaping the future of decentralized finance and blockchain technology.

BitMEX Founder’s Bearish Bitcoin Outlook: Prepares For Dip Below $35k

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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently shared his insights on the current state of the financial markets, focusing on Bitcoin’s potential support level and the actions of key figures like US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Bitcoin Support Projections

According to a recent blog post, Hayes believed that Bitcoin could find support between $30,000 and $35,000. To position himself for this scenario, he revealed that he had purchased $35,000 strike puts set to expire on March 29th, 2024. In preparation for the potential BTC dip, Hayes disclosed that he had sold his trading positions in Solana and Bonk at a slight loss, emphasizing his intent to start “bottom fishing” once Bitcoin drops below $35,000.

Discussing the actions of Yellen and Powell, Hayes characterized their approach as oscillating between decisive actions and vague talking points. Yellen’s decision to shift borrowing to Treasury bills (T-bills) was highlighted as a move that injected significant liquidity into the markets. On the other hand, Powell’s talk about potential rate cuts and tapering of Quantitative Tightening (QT) was seen as mere rhetoric without immediate monetary stimulus.

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Hayes criticized the market’s interpretation of both Yellen and Powell’s actions and words as if they were equivalent, noting that while Yellen’s actions added liquidity, Powell’s talk did not result in increased monetary stimulus. Despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new all-time highs, Hayes cautioned that the real indicator of dollar liquidity, Bitcoin, was showing signs of concern, dropping from $48,000 to below $40,000.

He argued against two common explanations for Bitcoin’s recent dip – outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and anticipation of the non-renewal of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). Hayes contended that the second argument was more valid, suggesting that the cessation of the BTFP could lead to a mini-financial crisis, contrary to the confidence exhibited by Yellen and Powell.

Hayes concluded by providing charts to support his view that the Fed is trapped between inflation and a potential banking crisis, with Bitcoin acting as a key indicator. He emphasized the importance of watching Yellen’s upcoming actions, particularly in the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on January 31st, to gauge the market’s direction.

However, Hayes painted a complex picture of the current financial landscape, expressing skepticism about the effectiveness of central bank communication and highlighting Bitcoin as a leading indicator for broader market movements.

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Bitcoin Faces Steep Decline, Dips Below $40K

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Bitcoin plummeted to a six-week low, falling rapidly from a recent high of $41,553 to a worrisome $39,536 today. The cryptocurrency market, in general, witnessed a tumultuous Monday, with Bitcoin experiencing a 4.3% drop in the last 24 hours and a staggering 9.3% decline over the last 30 days. Santiment, a crypto market data provider, reported that Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $40,000 mark for the first time since December 4th.

Currently, BTC is trading at $40,043.71, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already volatile market. Market analysts suggest that fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are creeping into the cryptocurrency space, potentially creating opportunities for price rebounds when the FUD reaches its peak.

BTC 1D graph coinmarketcap 25
Source: CoinMarketcap

BitMEX Co-founder’s Prediction: Bitcoin Below $40,000

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made a bold prediction yesterday, stating that Bitcoin would dip below $40,000. To hedge against this anticipated decline, Hayer reportedly purchased put options with a strike price of $35,000, expiring on March 29. The co-founder’s move indicates a lack of confidence in the short-term performance of Bitcoin. Hayer might have acquired these put options at a price of 0.025 BTC per share, totaling 5 BTC.

Market analyst Mags share insights on potential future trends. Mags highlighted the importance of recognizing patterns in Bitcoin’s historical corrections, pointing out the four stages: consolidation at the same level, slow bleeding over weeks, acceleration of the decline, and finally, finding support and a quick recovery. Mags emphasized the need for vigilance, especially considering the lengthening consolidation periods observed after each correction.

In the midst of market uncertainty, Mags advised followers not to miss the next potential dip in Bitcoin’s price. According to Mags, recognizing whether the ongoing consolidation is re-accumulation or a local swing high is challenging. However, for those with a bullish long-term outlook, eyeing targets of $80,000 to $100,000 or beyond, Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) after a significant pullback from the local top is recommended.

Mags reminded investors that the Bitcoin halving is just 85 to 90 days away, coinciding with a potential new all-time high. With this perspective, Mags sees the current dip as possibly the last before the market enters a sustained bullish trend.

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BitMEX Founder Warns: Bitcoin’s Fate Hangs In The Balance Amid ETF Surge

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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, in a thought-provoking blog post, explores the potential existential threat confronting Bitcoin. He highlights the increasing popularity of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) managed by traditional finance (TradFi) asset managers. Hayes argues that the triumph of these ETFs might endanger Bitcoin, potentially turning it into a state-controlled financial asset and losing its original essence.

Bitcoin’s Unique Existence

According to Hayes, the recent surge in Bitcoin ETF applications from East Coast US financial giants has made the cryptocurrency more appealing to the political establishment. In a witty remark, he quips, “Never fade the right kind of white boys in Pax Americana,” hinting at the influence of certain players in the financial landscape.

Hayes expresses a primary concern regarding the fundamental disparity between Bitcoin and traditional monetary instruments. Unlike physical assets such as gold or fiat currency, Bitcoin’s value is intricately tied to its movement. He envisions a scenario where major asset managers, like BlackRock, accumulate BTC without utilizing the underlying blockchain, effectively rendering the cryptocurrency dormant.

The first monetary asset to exist solely through movement, Bitcoin faces a unique challenge. After block rewards dwindle to zero, miners will rely solely on transaction fees for income. If the network stagnates and transactions cease, miners cannot sustain the energy costs required to secure the network, resulting in a catastrophic shutdown.

Hayes proposes a scenario where BTC falls into the hands of major asset managers who, due to confusion and laziness, opt for Bitcoin ETF derivatives instead of holding the actual cryptocurrency. BTC becomes a dormant asset in this hypothetical future, leading to the network’s demise. However, Hayes finds beauty in this potential demise, as it opens the door for a new crypto monetary network to emerge.

Hayes presents a binary choice as he urges readers to consider their stance on the ongoing fiat debasement. Either trade ETFs for fiat gains or preserve wealth in energy terms by holding Bitcoin in self-custodied wallets outside the control of the state. In a closing statement, he underscores the importance of securing private keys, emphasizing the need to avoid handing them over to centralized entities.

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Bitcoin Resilience Amid Chaos: Insights from BitMEX Founder

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In a recent article, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes shared his perspectives on the current state of the cryptocurrency market, the potential impact of war and rising energy prices on Bitcoin, and the Federal Reserve’s actions. Hayes is a well-known figure in the crypto space, and his insights carry weight among industry enthusiasts.

Bitcoin’s Strength Amid Global Turmoil

Hayes believes that despite initial concerns of a Bitcoin sell-off triggered by global conflicts and surging energy costs, Bitcoin is likely to outperform traditional assets like bonds during times of war. In his view, even if there is an initial period of weakness, it’s an opportunity to “buy the dip.” He points out that since the Ukraine/Russia conflict began, the long-term US Treasury bond ETF (TLT) has fallen by 12%, while Bitcoin has surged by 52%.

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However, Hayes highlights a potential consequence of the Federal Reserve’s actions. If the Fed decides to cut interest rates, it could lead to a significant weakening of the US dollar. This, in turn, could exert upward pressure on oil prices, as oil is priced in dollars. Hayes cautions against this move, especially when geopolitical tensions are high, as it could have dire political repercussions, potentially leading to gas prices soaring close to $200 per barrel by the next year’s election.

Hayes also takes a jab at those who downplay inflation by joking that “if you exclude all the things people need to live and earn a living, inflation is non-existent.” He expresses confidence in the robust US economy, which he believes will drown out concerns about rising inflation.

In Hayes’ assessment, he doesn’t foresee a recession in 2024, citing the basic components of GDP growth. He explains that government net spending, powered by running a deficit, contributes to GDP growth. This government spending has a multiplier effect, leading to private-sector activity, job creation, and economic growth.

Given the current economic dynamics, Hayes predicts that the median voter will be satisfied with a strong stock market, a robust economy, and controlled inflation.

Regarding the Federal Reserve’s actions and the impact on the financial system, Hayes cautions against overloading on long-term bonds with a buy-and-hold strategy. He advises against holding illiquid long-term debt, especially if the liquidity situation changes. Instead, he suggests considering short-term debt with leverage as a better option for those limited to traditional financial assets.

Crypto Outlook: Asset Hierarchy

Hayes also delves into the cryptocurrency world, where he sees opportunities for significant returns. He outlines a hierarchy of crypto assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum at the top as the “reserve assets,” followed by other layer-one blockchains like Solana. Finally, he acknowledges the potential for substantial gains in decentralized applications (dApps) and their respective tokens.

Arthur Hayes offers a comprehensive analysis of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the potential of cryptocurrency in a world marked by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. His insights reflect his belief in the resilience of Bitcoin and other crypto assets during turbulent times, making them appealing investment options.

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Bitcoin Emerges As Vital Hedge In The Face Of Economic Turbulence: Analyst Advises

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In a recent revelation, the former BitMex CEO, Arthur Hayes, renowned for his astute observations on digital currencies, underscores the pivotal role of Bitcoin (BTC) in the ever-evolving global financial landscape. Hayes has emphasized the pressing need for individuals to consider Bitcoin as a secure hedge against the world’s mounting economic challenges.

In his recent X post, Hayes has drawn attention to a significant financial indicator – the negative real interest rates prevailing in the United States. He arrived at this conclusion by meticulously subtracting the 3Q23 nominal GDP growth rate of 6.3% from the one-year Treasury yield of 5.4%, resulting in a real interest rate of -1.1%. This revelation holds substantial implications for the average citizen, as Hayes warns against allowing the government to profit at their expense.

In light of these findings, Hayes offers invaluable investment advice to those concerned about safeguarding and increasing their purchasing power. He suggests that individuals avoid conventional investments and opt for a diversified portfolio, including technology stocks, gold, and, most notably, Bitcoin. According to Hayes, these assets offer a robust shield against the eroding impact of negative real interest rates.

Bitcoin’s Unwavering Path

Arthur Hayes is no stranger to advocating for Bitcoin’s critical role in the contemporary economic landscape. He has previously penned essays on this subject, albeit with an error in his formula for calculating real interest rates. Correctly, the real rate is determined by subtracting inflation from the nominal rate, not GDP.

However, Hayes’s main thrust behind endorsing Bitcoin as a prime investment opportunity remains the issue of inflation. He underscores how fiat currencies worldwide are steadily losing their purchasing power due to extensive quantitative easing and stimulus packages implemented by central banks in response to pandemic-induced financial policies. As global economic uncertainties loom, Hayes’s message reverberates clearly: it is time to embrace Bitcoin as a haven in the face of the looming financial crisis.

Arthur Hayes’s call to invest in Bitcoin has never been more pertinent as the global financial landscape faces turbulent times. Bitcoin’s status as a reliable store of value and hedge against inflation makes it an attractive option for investors looking to protect their wealth in an uncertain world.

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