Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee has made the Fed’s Sept. 16 decision a backstop for risk assets, claiming stocks can burn bright with a hike or no-hike. The thesis, highlighted on X by CoinBureau, turns a risk-averse event into a winning formula, connecting Treasury yields, positioning and inflation to equities and crypto.
What happened is that Tom Lee told CNBC that the FOMC could cause a significant move higher. If policymakers hike 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent, he predicts markets will treat it as the final hike, with the result that the 10-year yield will slide and lend support to stocks. If the Fed holds, he foresees a dovish surprise despite hawkish messaging, as investors price a persistent hold regime.
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Why Both Cases Bullish
The thesis originates from his Fundstrat Direct 2026 thesis, Wall of Scepticism, New Fed, SandP 500 Year-End 7700, which argued that investor scepticism gives way to upside support. Key players are Tom Lee Fundstrat, the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, and BitMine Immersion Technologies, where Lee is chair.
Source: CNBC
Tradeweb CME FedWatch shows a nearly 70 per cent chance of a hike given what the Bureau of Labour Statistics CPI released: 0.4 percent in headline and 0.2 percent in core.
And for crypto, Tom Lee’s second hat affects institutional fund flows because once they are turned by the prospect of a hike, they will buy into equity illiquidities and real yields to own Bitcoin, Ethereum and related ETFs; why both cases could be bullish.
Also Read: Tom Lee: 2026 Is a Unique Time for US Investors Amid Tech Boom
Four Drivers Behind Potential Rally
Tom Lee lays out four causes of a potential face-ripper rally. First, sentiment has flipped to bearish. AAI surveys remain net bearish, unlike 2024-2025 bullishness. Rare for bull markets to peak during widespread bearishness. Second, inflation is moderating but broken.
GoldmanSachs data Lee references combines four 1.7-point increases to headline PCE from portfolio fees, flash memory, tariffs and energy; all are forecast to fall away in six months and slice headline PCE by 100 basis points.
Third, a hike leaves no more expectations for tightening in 2026, foreboding bullish duration. Fourth, heavy cash parked on the sidelines and a four-day consecutive S&P 500 losing streak, with the index a hefty 2.7 per cent below its highs, leave fuel for a rebound when certainty arrives.
Also Read: Tom Lee 2026: Any SpaceX Pullback Is a Buying Opportunity
Impact on Crypto and Institutions
A change in the thesis would benefit the crypto market because of lower long-end yield which results in fewer discount rates and thereby, higher risk appetite. BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin as well as Ethereum ETFs would benefit as a result. There would also be an increase in the transaction volumes on Coinbase and Binance.
Source: People Matters
Settlement through stablecoins, tokenized funds, and DeFi loans would all thrive under the improved conditions. Tom Lee believes that Bitcoin’s first bullish swing has started and institutional investment has increased in Q4 which is a signal that BitMine’s treasury strategy is on track. When volatility is compressed developers custodians and venture funds benefit.
Though, potential threats remain: Artificial Intelligence expansion financed through debt may not be restrained by interest rate hikes and if the price of crude oil goes up, inflation rates may remain high.
Also Read: Tom Lee’s Bitmine Battles Massive $8.86B Ethereum Loss
Fed Policy Will Shape What’s Next
If the Fed raises rates, the dots on the graph would display if a protracted period of inactivity follows or not. If the interest rate levels remain unchanged, then the embedded futures pricing for several rate increases has to be unwound, resulting in a very low risk repricing scenario.
Fundstrat anticipates some degree of volatility between now and October around the change of Fed leadership, energy scarcity, and possibility of supply from IPO lockups for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
Source: PCMag Australia
The firm recently raised its 500-point S&P level target from 7,700 toward 7,900 because Q1’s earnings per share, in fact, have outperformed the estimate of 80 dollars with 70 dollars expected. In the fourth year after the market has gained three years of double-digit returns, on the average it goes up 12 percent.
To make it clear, BitMine’s fourth-year return averages 12 percent. For cryptocurrencies, the upcoming release of PCE data, Fed meeting minutes, and CoinShares flows will determine if the scenario-bullish both-sides setup is going to be a momentum or not.
Also Read: Tom Lee Says Ethereum Price Outlook Can Strengthen Through 2026
