A possible breakthrough in the US-Iran war negotiations has put Bitcoin’s $90,000 level back in focus. Sources familiar with mediation expect progress this week, according to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, while Bitcoin traded near $82,000 on Monday. No peace agreement has been confirmed.
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The October 19 report cited unnamed sources familiar with Qatari and Pakistani mediation. Negotiators seek mutual concessions, but neither government has announced a timetable.
The US-Iran war talks follow months of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions and Iran’s nuclear activities remain obstacles.
What Is Blocking a US-Iran War Agreement?
Tehran’s offer on opening up the Strait of Hormuz is still on the table, according to Abbas Araghchi, the country’s foreign minister. It was reported by Reuters on October 18th, that if Washington agrees to Iran’s terms, the Strait of Hormuz would open in just seven days.
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These terms include the lifting of the United States’ sanctions on oil trade and the end of their blockade of Iranian ports, together with the end of any regional hostilities. Iran has asked for the maritime security issues to be tackled first, but Washington has been insisting on limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment.
The US vice president, JD Vance, has called for some reduction in this enrichment capacity of Iran, but the latter has rejected this idea. This means that there is still no guarantee for any announcement in this case.
How Is the US-Iran War Affecting Oil Markets?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical factor in this conflict due to the energy exports passing through it. Prior to the war, one fifth of all oil and liquefied natural gas trading was conducted via the strait.
Prices of oil fell on October 19th, according to Reuters. Brent fell to $108 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell to $101 per barrel.
News regarding incidents of tankers and interruptions in the shipping made traders cautious. Kpler believes that oil exports from the Gulf have fallen from more than 20 million barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day. The policy towards Russian oil sanctions is another factor impacting the price of energy.
A de-escalation in the conflict between Iran and the USA may decrease risks for shipping and lower prices for energy. Lower prices for oil help to lower inflationary pressures; however, that doesn’t mean that the prices for cryptocurrencies will rise.
Can Bitcoin Reclaim $90,000 Before the Midterms?
Bitcoin is priced at about $82,000 on October 19 as it bounces back from some losses. The upside to $82,500-$90,000 needs around a 9.1% rise. Positive developments in US-Iran war talks may boost risk-taking sentiment, but Bitcoin will still require demand for reaching such levels.
Interest rate predictions, inflation expectations, and institutional flows impact Bitcoin as well. Ceasefire talk cannot initiate an upward trend.
US midterms are set for November 3. The markets look at energy prices and foreign policy amid elections, but the policymakers did not guarantee the US-Iran war deal until elections day.
What Does Bitcoin’s Election History Show?
In addition, crypto analyst Ali Charts analyzed the returns of Bitcoin over one month after the four most recent U.S. midterm elections. According to his numbers, the coin gained 30.91% after the 2010 election and 6.61% after the 2014 vote.
Conversely, in the next two midterms, Bitcoin lost 47.13% and 18.15% in value after the 2018 and 2022 elections, respectively.
These four periods cannot be considered proof of any electoral pattern. The economic situation, exchanges’ performance, and investors’ demand varied in each case. Historical returns serve only as a reference point, but not a reliable prediction.
Executive Chairman of Strategy Michael Saylor predicted that Bitcoin will rally above $100,000. He stated it on October 13, during an interview with Bloomberg and attributed it to the growing institutional interest in the asset.
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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
