Dogecoin (DOGE) may have reached a structural bottom, according to observations by crypto trader TOPDOGE on X on February 20. Past cycles suggest significant upside could follow.
In the 2017 cycle, DOGE gained roughly 9,200% over 300 days, while a prior cycle delivered around 26,000% in just 150 days. If historical behavior repeats, the current consolidation phase could set the stage for a major upward move.
Technical analysis of the three-week chart indicates that DOGE is making an ascending channel. The price has been respecting the rising lower support line and the upper resistance line.
Source: X
The major historical reaction points, such as 2017, 2020, and more recently 2025-2026, indicate that the price has a tendency to find support at the lower boundary before making a strong move upwards.
At the moment, DOGE is testing the lower support line after it was unable to maintain the price momentum at the midpoint of the ascending channel.
Historical patterns of volume during breakouts show that prices tend to rise after a long period of consolidation around the lower edge of the channel. If this symmetry is to be followed, then the current base of DOGE could be a higher low, marking the beginning of an uptrend.
Analysts say that a breakout above the midpoint would signal the return of strength, while a close below the lower support would negate the bullish view.
Also Read: Massive Dogecoin (DOGE) Upside Brewing: 10x Potential Ahead
Dogecoin Weekly Chart Highlights Short-Term Weakness
However, from a long-term perspective, the DOGE/USD chart on TradingView indicates that the bearish pressure is still being experienced.
After DOGE reached its peak at approximately $0.40 in late 2024 and early 2025, the cryptocurrency began to experience a distribution phase, where it made lower highs and lower lows.
The current price of DOGE is approximately $0.10, which indicates that the bullish pressure experienced in the past has been lost. From a moving average analysis, it can be seen that the current trend is still negative. DOGE is currently below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-week EMAs.
Source: TradingView
Rebounds above the 50-week EMA have been unsuccessful, showing that the selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure during rallies.
The range of consolidation at $0.15-$0.20 in mid- to late 2025 has now broken down, and $0.10 is an important psychological level that could act as support. If this level is breached, the accumulation line at $0.07-$0.08 could be the next target.
Momentum and Accumulation Signal Caution
Momentum indicators warn of caution. The weekly RSI is in the mid-30s, below the middle of 50, indicating bear dominance. No bullish divergence has emerged.
The MACD is negative, as the MACD line is below the signal line, with a red histogram, indicating that a trend change is not imminent, at least not until a confirmed line crossover occurs. The Accumulation/Distribution line remains strongly negative.
Source: TradingView
Also Read: Dogecoin Attempts Reversal as Technical Indicators Signal Potential $0.25 Rally
