In a meticulous analysis shared on platform X, highly regarded crypto analyst Will Clemente thoroughly examines Bitcoin’s present position within the vast macroeconomic landscape. With precision, he uncovers significant correlations between ongoing fiscal trends and the projected trajectory of this digital asset.
Clemente starts by setting the Bitcoin stage, emphasizing its immense potential despite a near 70% drop from 2021 highs. He revisits its origin, born in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis by Satoshi Nakamoto, aiming to counter financial system risks. Supporting this, Clemente highlights the federal debt surge, from 60% to 120% of the US economy’s output in 15 years, sharply differing from real economic growth. He further details,
“Even though the economy’s growth exceeded expectations, registering 2.4% (annualized) in the recent second quarter, public debt overshadowed it by swelling 2.7%, which annualizes to an unsettling 10.8%.”
Bitcoin’s Ascendance Amidst Economic Uncertainty
Clemente warns of the U.S. in a precarious position, requiring either a groundbreaking economic surge or an implausible debt clampdown driven by political popularity pressures. Shifting focus, Clemente addresses the financial impact of the aging baby boomer generation, with their social security programs burdening a financially strained younger workforce, intensifying fiscal strain.
Given the mounting debt, Clemente suggests the solution might lie in monetary debasement, an economic tactic intentionally reducing currency value. He clarifies, “By inflating the monetary base (by, for instance, printing more money), debt can be paid back in nominal terms, but its real value (adjusted for inflation or debasement) gets effectively reduced.”
Shifting the focus to assets in this environment, Clemente delves into which assets are poised to thrive in a continuously debasing economy. He scrutinizes options ranging from stocks exhibiting consistent growth to real estate, commodities, and venture capital. Clemente astutely observes that when adjusted for M2 money supply growth, returns of indices like the S&P 500 are less impressive.
He notes, Interestingly, relative to the M2 money supply, the S&P 500 has barely made new highs. This hints at stocks being susceptible to debasement that affects fiat currencies. Real estate, although a tangible hedge against inflation, grapples with illiquidity. Conversely, while potentially lucrative, venture and angel investing pose barriers that may deter average citizens.
Commodities like gold have historically shielded against financial turmoil. However, Clemente posits that Bitcoin emerges as a formidable contender in this realm. Following its next halving, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio, a measure of scarcity, will surpass gold and silver. Beyond metrics, Bitcoin’s intrinsic properties, such as portability and verifiability, solidify its status as a unique financial instrument.
Recent rate hikes affected Bitcoin’s short-term value, but Clemente stresses the enduring impact of unchecked fiscal policies. Bitcoin’s algorithmic scarcity could be a potent defense against central bank-induced devaluation in this scenario. Broadening his view, Clemente cites a UN report to highlight the global mood. A surge in negative news and declining global living standards paints a grim picture amidst heightened political polarization.
Delving into the underlying factors, Clemente pinpoints monetary debasement as a likely driving factor. He elaborates that the continual expansion of the money supply benefits asset holders but renders asset acquisition progressively unattainable for those without them. This growing divide, he suggests, fuels a societal shift towards disillusionment with the conventional system.