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Bitcoin [BTC/USD] Price Analysis

Bitcoin Slows Down As Investors Await Next Move

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Bitcoin, the le­ading cryptocurrency, has recently e­xhibited a decline in on-chain activity, indicating that investors are opting to retain the­ir coins rather than engage in transactions with potential buyers, as noted by Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant.

Ki shared a chart regarding Bitcoin velocity on August 25 through his X post, showing the speed at which the units of BTC are circulated within the network in relation to the number of transactions each day, and revealed that it has reached multi-year lows on a daily basis.

Ki’s analysis indicates that this situation may be interpreted in two ways: either as an indication that whales keep holding onto their coins as long as they can or as a sign indicating that new investors are showing a decline in interest in this asset class.

0f3a3d6e ba22 4617 befb b3943f4d5fe5
Source: CryptoQuant

In recent months, Bitcoin has remained stagnant and lacks clear price direction – hovering around $26,000 without any significant fluctuations. Additionally, Ki observed a paralle­l absence of trading activity among high-volume inve­stors—an observation suggestive of a “wait and se­e” sentiment pe­rmeating the BTC market. 

On the other hand, earlier this year, when fresh capital influx propelled BTC/USD into a streak of impressive gains during the first quarter of this year, shattering all-time highs above $20,000 for the first time ever, this marks a clear contrast.

Bitcoin Oversold At $26,000?

The implication of the­ volume data holds significant importance. Back in late 2020, whe­n Bitcoin’s velocity experie­nced a rebound from its long-term low, it fore­shadowed the breakthrough that prope­lled Bitcoin past $20,000 and led to its subsequent surge to new record highs a year later. 

However, the current situation shows a notable dive­rgence. At its current level of $26,000, Bitcoin appears to be oversold based on its daily relative strength index (RSI), which is a technical indicator that is used to measure the price momentum. 

BTCUSD 2023 08 26 20 54 29
Source: TradingView

Notably, this month witnessed the lowest 12-hour RSI in five years with no signs of recove­ry yet, suggesting waning interest from investors. This begs the question: Will Bitcoin undergo another price bre­akout similar to Q4 2020 or succumb to further downward pressure? Only time will reveal the answer. 

Nevertheless, some analysts maintain a bullish stance on Bitcoin’s overall traje­ctory and consider the ongoing consolidation as a healthy corre­ction before the next significant upward move.

Curre­ntly, BTC is trading at $26,043.72, with a market capitalization of $507.03 billion. The­ 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin is $7.71 billion, while its value has incre­ased by +0.44% in the last 24 hours. 

Related Reading | Binance’s Lightning Nodes Skyrocket 7x In A Week, Capacity Hits 77.73 BTC

Bitcoin Below $10,000 was August 2019 Trend; is it Going to Repeat?

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Bitcoin finally re-tested the resistance at $12,000 for the first time since 1st August a few hours back. The rally was short-lived with the king coin falling face forward to register a massive decline at support line $11,508. Credit to Bitcoin, the asset is above $11,900 again at the moment, but the largest virtual currency continues to swim in deep waters, suggesting a massive turnaround is coming, whether it is bullish or bearish.

Bitcoin hourly chart misses bearish break

BTC 1 hour e1597068818325

Now, Bitcoin‘s sideways movement between the range $11,508 and $12,000 has been observed since 5th August but the fact that the recent bearish pattern register rise is concerning. As witnessed, a descending triangle for Bitcoin underwent a bullish breakout instead of a bearish pullback below support line $11,508, which indicated irregularity in the market. Now, with the price floating in the high range, a key pattern was observed between the price activity of August 2019 and August 2020.

Will Bitcoin repeat the bearish pullback of August 2019?

BTC 2 e1597068869127

In the comparison chart above, a side-by-side analysis is drawn between Bitcoin’s price movement in August 2019 to BTC’s move in August 2020. Co-incidentally the price position of Bitcoin is at the exact same place right now, as it was back in 2019.

The rally before reaching $12,000 is very similar breaching past the same resistance in the charts. Now, something which is not uncommon in the market can pull back Bitcoin below $10,000 over the next week. If Bitcoin’s trend of 2020 completely mirrors the price movement of 2019, the coin will drop down to $9700 in the market.

The decreasing trading volume at the time of writing might be a red flag, indicating that the rally over the past one week is not strong, and based on weak trading fundamentals.

With high volatility exposure, a massive decline is certainly not out of question for Bitcoin as BTC’s price continues to struggle with the  $12,000 range.

Bitcoin Price Plunges $1,500 in Three Minutes to Liquidate $100M from BitMEX

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In just over 12 hours after Bitcoin price broke past the $10,000 resistance level for the first time in over 20 days, the digital currency came down in despair and heartbreak for many. Before the price came down, Bitcoin saw a barricade of sell orders that dropped the crypto’s price to as low as $8,600 on major exchange BitMEX. 

Bitcoin Price plunge

However, the price of BTC on spot exchanges and some of the other derivative exchange platforms, managed to sustain the lows of $9,000. Unfortunately, on the BitMEX exchange platform the price came tumbling down by over $1,500 in a bearish rally that ended up liquidating quite a number of market participants.

According to data by cryptocurrency derivatives platform Skew.com, roughly $96 million in long positions were erased by the plunge. However, this is slightly lower than the previous $125 million BTC liquidation yesterday when Bitcoin’s price action wiped out $10,000, which signals that the market was leaning long before moving.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin price next move?

Cryptocurrency and market analysts are yet to react to the next destination after the plunge, but what is clear is that Bitcoin price is below the crucial resistance of $10,500 in the meantime. Bitcoin’s price action has attempted to break past the $10,500 on two crucial occasions but the efforts have ended up futile.

The first attempt was when Chinese president Xi Jinping publicly endorsed blockchain technology, and the other time was during February’s surge to $10,500. Due to this fact of several unsuccessful attempts to mount past this price level, it strongly signals that the crypto is braced for a down trend.

Market Crash, What Was The Blood Bath About?

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Bitcoin Crash, the worse fall in the past 7 years – 90 billion wipes out from the crypto market

On 12th March, the financial markets experienced a blood bath. With stocks, oil, gold drenched in red, most didn’t expect the crypto market to follow the bearish trail until what we state the worse fall in more than half a decade happened; Bitcoin collapsed 40% under 24-hours. 

The market cap the crash wiped out $93.5 billion from the market cap under a day. Bitcoin reached the lowest its been in 2020 as it touched the $4000 mark.

The global sell-off on stocks made Dow Jones suffer its biggest drop since 1987’s Black Monday. The broad-based S&P 500 plunged 9.5% to 2,480.64, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 9.4% to 7,201.80. 

Amidst the Coronavirus panic, Trump declared a travel ban on most travel from Europe while failing to give a comprehensive economic and medical of the pandemic. As if the coronavirus panic wasn’t enough already, the travel ban induced it more.

Yesterday’s market sell-off worsened to a level that stock trading was put to a stop for 15 whole minutes as the market hit the mandatory “circuit-breaker” threshold set by the US. Nevertheless, even that couldn’t stop the plunge as the market was already infected with panic selling. Gold fell, oil dropped and the credit market along with crypto followed.

The increased selling pressure killed the buying momentum which further increased selling pressure and so on.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”-John Maynard Keynes

The crashes were the result of an extended bull market plus a worldwide pandemic surrounded by paranoia. 

To get this right, think about this – didn’t the bull market feel too long? Bitcoin stalling around $10k and altcoins pumping without any significant progress. There comes a point when irrational exuberance and greed drive the prices and the trading value becomes way more than its actual value. 

This type of extended bull market was also observed in the traditional stock market. The financial market would have nevertheless faced a correction but now, the usual crash was accompanied by millions of panic sellers. 

If you’ve ever read the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, the book that inspired Warren Buffet, you’ll understand a lot about the mentality of the market. 

Amongst things that live and die one thing that remains constant is the mentality of the market. The market sells when prices drop and buy when prices rise. The basic investment strategy of buying low and selling high doesn’t work here for anyone who gets into the bull wave. 

With Trump’s announcement, and Toilet paper prices skyrocketing, there were some market sell-offs. This lead to the eventual crash of an extended bull market. But that wasn’t it. The crash was followed by a huge number of panic selling, as the domino effect runs – all the financial markets collapsed. 

 

Bitcoin Performance During Past Fed Rate Cuts Hints “it is not a safe haven asset”

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Back In 2019, The Federal Reserve Board (FED) cut the interest rate thrice in order to achieve greater economic growth. The lower financial cost can lead to an increase in the purchasing and borrowing power of the individuals. However, it can also lead to inflation and reduced purchasing power after a time-lapse.

On one side, we can see that the last 3 FED’s rate cuts have not shown any considerable fluctuation in the price of Bitcoins. And on the other side, analysts have been predicting that FED’s rate cut had just shown positive results for the assets like gold. As a result, many researchers have started claiming Bitcoin as an unsafe asset.

However, the market’s volatility has resulted in a new perception that there might be a bounce-back in the Bitcoin rates if FED decides to cut the interest rates again. In contrast, there are a few analysts who have unparalleled opinions. They believe that FED’s additional rate cut won’t end up in any cheer in the Bitcoin’s price. It will remain as steady as it prevailed in 2019.

In the previous 2-3 months, we have seen a lot of fluctuations in the market resulting in the display of its volatile nature. The US’s attack on Iranian general being one of the reasons behind the market’s unreliable changes. Additionally, Coronavirus has played a disastrous role in the market’s major setback.

Moreover, it’s worth noting that the bitcoin is currently trading at $8,739.56, surging by 1.50 percent within the past 24Hrs. With the dominance of 63.9%, Bitcoin is holding the market capitalization of $159,477,995,785.

While bitcoin bull like Michael Novogratz sees Bitcoin as digital gold, Jerome Powell, the 16th Chairperson of the Federal Reserve calls it as a speculative store of value.

Peter Shiff on Bitcoin Again – BTC Can Never Succeed As Money, Though it’s Price May Rise

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Peter Schiff on Bitcoin

A controversial high profile figure in the crypto industry, Peter Shiff talks about Bitcoin again. This time, he sounds optimistic regarding the future price of Bitcoin. As per him, though Bitcoin cannot gain the position of money, it’s price may rise in the coming years.

Peter Schiff’s Sharp U-turn

It’s worth noting that Peter Schiff is known as Bitcoin critic due to his long-term skeptical views about Bitcoin. According to him, Bitcoin can never replace money and never can be used as a store of value.

More so, Schiff was of the view that Bitcoin cannot reach the price value of $1,00,000. He made this comment possibly to nullify the view of John McAfee who predicted the BTC value to reach $1,00,000. To prove his view, he said that if the BTC rate reaches $1,00,000 per Bitcoin, then market capitalization will reach $1.8 trillion which is supposedly next to impossible.

Recently, Schiff tweeted and was seen taking a sharp U-turn looking at the growth  BTC has shown in recent months. As per the tweet, he denied that he has ever said the BTC rate will never rise. Though, he still maintained his view of BTC that will never replace the value of money.

Additionally, he even placed himself in a comfortable position saying that a person would have received a good amount of profit if he/she had done some good amount of investment in Bitcoin 10 years ago.

Although, Bitcoin has been in existence for over a year now, yet, analysts believe that there are still many years to go for Bitcoin to receive the designation of ‘peer-to-peer electronic cash system’. Evidently, people are purchasing it to get good returns on investment as they invest in stocks. This being said, the token is yet to receive the position when people consider it as a medium of exchange.

If we look at the other side of the coin, analysts such as Michael Novogratz believe Bitcoin as a store of value. Additionally, the value of Bitcoin has increased drastically back in 2017.

However, at the time of reporting this, the largest cryptocurrency is trading at $9700 against USD, plunging by 0.50 percent within the past 24Hrs.

Max Keiser Raises Bitcoin Forecast 4-times the Previous Prediction

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Max Keiser prediction on the BTC price reaching

In 2012, the renowned face of Cryptocurrency, Max Keiser, predicted that the BTC price will reach $1,00,000 when the price was $1. Recently in one of the American TV shows, Infowars, Max Keiser predicted the BTC price to rise to $4,00,000. This comment from him came nearly 8 years after his first prediction

“I am officially raising my prediction from $1,00,000 to $4,00,000. I made my first prediction when the BTC price was just $1. I am increasing my target for the first time since 2012.” said Max Keiser who once tore dollar notes to emphasise the value of Bitcoin.

Keiser has been a known face in the Cryptocurrency industry for a decade now. With his comments, it is very clear that he is still optimistic about the BTC’s potential to show extraordinary gains. In his interview with Alex Jones, Max Keiser referred to the Coronavirus’ impact overshadowing of the Cryptocurrency market as a short term effect.

As per him, the BTC was equally attractive when the price was $100 and is attractive still today when the price has reached $10,000.While predicting, he did not give any particular time frame. Apart from this, he also targeted his haters and invited them to invest in the Cryptocurrency which as per him, can give 40x returns.

BTC Prediction By Experts

  • Tim Draper, the venture capitalist, also forecasted the BTC price reaching $2,50,000 by 2024.

  • John McAfee, the US presidential candidate, who predicted the BTC price reaching $1 million also took away his bet.

  • The CEO of Bitcoin Wallet Ballet, Bobby Lee, Believes that the BTC rate is supposed to reach $5,00,000 by the end of 2028.

  • Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat believes that BTC price is going through a bad phase and will be improvised by the end of the year.

  • Looking at all this forecasting done by big names, we just memorize one great saying,

“Predictions are assumptions based on analytics. It’s the time that shows a proper demonstration.”

Mid-Week Market Analysis for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple

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Cryptomarkets Highlights 

Bitcoin and Ethereum have been front running the entire crypto markets.

  • Last week’s Ethereum upward momentum at the $200 suggested a possibility to break through its hurdles. Now the second leading crypto by market capitalization is trading $246.
  • On the other hand, Bitcoin has already broken out from the $10,000 price resistance. Bitcoin is trading at $10,300 during press time, which shows it could be headed for a massive $11,000.
  • Ripple (XRP) is surging and has retested the $0.2880 resistance area against the United States Dollar. Ripple’s price shows signs of rising further beyond $0.2900 and $0.3000 in the near term.

Ethereum seems to have slight weaknesses while hovering around its key support and major resistance. Bitcoin has overcome some of these weaknesses given eleven past days of almost losing its share market.

The leading digital asset set new 2020 highs at $10,400. Meanwhile, the crypto market is warming up for more price levels and upsides.

The most bullish belief is that the approaching halving event is in favor of upward correction. According to past historic data of the halving of the reward, bitcoin has always surged in prices. 

Yet another key indicator that spells the bulls are in favour of the market, is Google Trends search data for the keyword “Buy Bitcoin”

The search numbers have taken a parabolic zoom. This indicates that retail investors could be preparing their grand entry into the market. 

Ripple (XRP) is surging and has retested the $0.2880 resistance area against the United States Dollar. Ripple’s price shows signs of rising further beyond $0.2900 and $0.3000 in the near term. There is a likelihood that the bulls have already regained their strength.

Once the price of XRP breaks its next key resistance level of $0.2900, it could surge further upwards. 

Another prominent coin, litecoin, is trading 3.02 % high at its present price of $78.67. Against the price of Bitcoin, the LT/BTC pair is likely to hit 0.0075 BTC before attaining its next supply zone around 0.0095 BTC. The coin is targeting the $100 support level within the next 30 days. 

Bitcoin  Price Analysis

A surge in google search volumes of the phrase “Buy Bitcoin” is a good thing. The last time it happened was in 2017 prior to Bitcoin rising to an all-time high. Meanwhile, that 2017 bull run had been the result of market scrambling by neophyte retail investors. At the start of the week, Bitcoin broke below the five figures, giving traders a lot to be bearish about. 

Dave the Wave, a crypto analyst who predicted Bitcoin’s  December bottom to $6,000 has also predicted a bitcoin rally of $11,000 in the near term. While the community laughed off his December prediction, it came to pass and Bitcoin hit the mid $6K price levels. The analyst is now calling for 7.7% upside for Bitcoin to hit either $11K or $11.5K. 

Ethereum Price Analysis

Ethereum found its support around $218 against the United States Dollar following a short term downside correction. The leading altcoin began a fresh increase after forming a support base at the $220 level. 

Additionally, there was a sharp upward momentum beyond resistance levels $225 and $230. Meanwhile, the bulls pushed the coin’s prices above a $230 swing high on the 100 hourly -SMA (Simple Moving Average). 

Along with the surging price, Ethereum had a break above the major contracting triangle of the $223 resistance on the ETH/USD pair hourly chart. The altcoin cleared its $240 resistance and is now trading above closely at $246.58. 

Ripple Price Analysis

XRP has been able to gain strength and climb beyond $0.2700 and $0.2750 resistance levels. Additionally, there was a price close beyond the $0.2750 and the 100 hourly -SMA.

Ripple broke above its key bearish trend line that had a key resistance new $0.2725 on the hourly XRP/USD pair chart. The third leading coin by market capitalization retested both $0.2880 and $0.2890 after climbing above the $0.2800 support. 

The altcoin is currently consolidating gains and has formed a high around $0.2881. Meanwhile, it formed initial support around $0.2830, coinciding with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward correction from $0.2700 low to $0.2881 high. 

 

Bitcoin’s Price Action Before The 2020 Halving

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These initial days of 2020’s Q1 represent a winning streak for Bitcoin. Up from the horror of an annual 2019 low of $6,000, the coin is experiencing worthwhile surges. At a glance, Bitcoin’s turn of events in 2019 was easily predictable throughout the year. 

However, the largest coin’s price action by the end of last year caught the entire market pants down. While data from Skew indicated a 6% probability of Bitcoin attaining its all-time high; a close surge crashed after attaining $14,000. This shattered the likelihood of the coin reaching $20,000. 

Nevertheless, the market is anticipating a nice return above the $10, 000 support. The Bitcoin halving could serve a rather significant upward pull in the coming 100 days. Let’s see what to expect. 

Meanwhile, the past 14 days have seen Bitcoin record a 20 percent gain. Seemingly approaching the $10,000 price mark gradually during press time.

bitcoin new

A twitter crypto analyst @Lightcrypto is expecting Bitcoin to break the $10,000. He shared his positive anticipation on his Twitter profile: 

In my mind, the odds of breaking $10,000 in the next two days is over 80%.”

Light noted that Bitcoin is ready for its pre-halving upswing. In fact, he said, “Bitcoin is already past its psychological litmus test.” The crypto trader and analyst pointed out it was quite impossible for traders to have held onto their positions this long.

Only to end up dumping their coins before a surge. His bullish prediction had that Bitcoin would surge to $11,000, shortly after the coin attained $10,000. 

“If and when we break the $10,000, we teleport to probably $11,000 in an hour.”

Flib Flib, a recognized cryptocurrency analyst and researcher made a chart estimation of Bitcoin experiencing a vertical surge towards the $9,000. Bottom at $6,000 by December and recover to $9,000 by January this year. He is famous for making an accurate forecast of $3,000 during the 2018 bear market.

Flib Flib wrote in a Decentrader newsletter that he believes  Bitcoin is going to surge to $15,800 before the halving event. He backed the forecast by taking note of the previous halving, Bitcoin found a temporary top at $800, the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the upward correction prior to the even

Flib mentioned that his volume indicators were well positioned and the moving averages were trending pretty well. The approximately $16,000 goal depends on historical trends. In addition to a confluence of several technical analysis indicating further upsides in the short term. Flib Flib also stated that his major indicators include the one month, four-hour and one-day candles. He suggested in the post the price of Bitcoin was meant for higher gains in the next few weeks. 

 

Your Weekly Dose of Crypto Markets : Bitcoin Futures, BTC/USD Performance & Altcoin Mining

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Chicago Mercantile Exchange is Launching Bitcoin Futures on Monday, 13. BTC/USD pair signals bullish zone while the crypto space anticipates more altcoin mining operation in the race to diversify income streams. 

Into the third week of 2020, we all expect exciting events in the crypto space. Bitcoin gained at least 10% in the second week and hit an annual record of $8,452. The broader market also witnessed similar gains with Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin SV(BSV) and Bitcoin Cash(BTC) posting similar corrections. 

Additionally, several events that could have a broader impact on the crypto space took place last week. US – Iran tensions heightened. Iran admitted to bombing down Ukranian plane among more stories. The industry anticipates that the third week of the year will be busier and markets will post even higher gains. 

Chicago Mercantile Exchange  (CME) Bitcoin Futures

In fact, the leading financial derivatives platform Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) promised to launch the much-awaited options on Bitcoin futures on Monday, January 13. 

Given the growing market capitalization of Bitcoin, several options of trading the asset have been growing as well. However,  concerns with ETFs (Exchange-traded funds) in the United States means that ETFs will not be available until a while later. Nevertheless, the launch of Bitcoin options will bring in more institutional investors into the market.

Noteworthy, options are financial derivatives that enable holders to buy or sell an asset at a specific price on a predetermined date; However without the obligation to trade them. Hence, such options enable speculators to bet upon a price surge or drop of the asset through leverage trading. 

Meanwhile, CME will avail Bitcoin futures on Monday that have a single contract representing BTC 5. These futures will provide more flexibility while managing bitcoin fluctuation risks. Additionally, the options will have the ability to save on potential margin offsets between options and futures. This is possible through the mitigation of risks of counterparty default through the central clearing of the CME market place.

BTC/USD Pair Performance

Bitcoin (BTC) fell from its 2020 high of $8,452 on January 8.  The decline was however temporal since the price bounced off the downward correction that had acted as the key resistance. Meanwhile, the many attempts to remain afloat above the $8K support serves as a positive sign. In case the bulls manage to push the price beyond the present $8, 170 price zone, this signal could easily begin a new upward correction. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is steadily rising and has positioned the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in a positive zone.  

A position that points out that the market is strongly bullish. However,  will the bulls fail to scale and maintain beyond the $8,200 support level, the existing bullish view will certainly be invalidated. BTC/USD pair will turn red in case the price drops below the moving averages and the $7,000 critical support.  Well, it would be easy for traders and analysts to watch a stop loss on the long positions around the $6,500 and $6,800 supports.

Mining Pools Integrating More Alternative Coins

A token data and rating analytics ‘TokenInsight’, released a report claiming that mining pools are likely to integrate more altcoins into their mining operations in 2020.  

The report noted that altcoin mining has massive market potential. Last year’s report accounts for at least 64 coins that could be mined, in addition to Bitcoin all sum up to 82% of the total market cap. 

Nonetheless, altcoins are entering the key stage through both mining and staking. Eventually, the altcoins market is likely to gain more attention from the crypto community. Given the looming Bitcoin halving of miner rewards, mining pools are also looking for diverse ways to boost their revenue streams.